National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mike Scott

National-Act could govern alone in latest political poll

Author: Michael Neilson, NZ Herald,
Publish Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2022, 2:58PM

National and Act could govern alone in the latest political poll that also shows a slight uptick in support for Labour.

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll for October has National increasing its support by two points from September to 39 per cent.

Act has dropped three points from 12 per cent to just over 9 per cent. This gives the traditional right-leaning coalition partners 49 per cent (with rounding), adding up to 63 of the 120 seats in the House - enough to form a government.

Labour is up one point to 34 per cent while the Green Party is down three points to 7 per cent.

Among the smaller parties the Opportunities Party has come out on top at 3.4 per cent, following by Te Pāti Māori at 2.1 per cent, NZ First at 2 per cent and New Conservatives at 1 per cent.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Mark Mitchell

At these numbers Labour and the Greens would receive 54 seats together and Te Pāti Māori three seats.

In the preferred prime minister stakes Labour leader and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has dropped a further 3.5 points to 32.9 per cent, down from a high of 50.8 per cent in September 2021.

Green Party MP Chloe Swarbrick. Photo / Alex Burton

National leader Christopher Luxon has also dropped in popularity, from 25.9 per cent to 22.5 per cent, continuing a steady decline from a high of 28.6 per cent in April.

Act leader David Seymour is on 7.3 per cent - up 0.7 points and Green MP Chloe Swarbrick is up 1.6 points to 4.8 per cent despite not being a party leader.

NZ First leader Winston Peters is on 3.6 per cent.

Raf Manji, leader of the Opportunities Party. Photo / Supplied

The net country direction, or "right track/wrong track" indicator has dropped to another record low of negative 28 per cent.

Just 29 per cent think the country is on the right track - down three points - while 56 per cent think it is on the wrong track. This is down from a net positive indicator in September last year of 50 per cent, with 71 per cent saying it was on the right track.

The poll follows a commercial poll from Talbot Mills, who also poll for the Labour Party, which had National and Labour neck and neck on 35 per cent. Labour was stable while National had dropped three points from September.

That poll also had the Green Party on 9 per cent and Act on 11 per cent.