New Zealand First is on the cusp of double digits in a new poll that has Winston Peters’ party ahead of its coalition partner, Act.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released this afternoon also shows National regaining top spot over Labour, but the two party leaders have almost identical levels of support.

The poll, conducted between July 2-6, found NZ First had jumped 3.7 percentage points to 9.8% when compared to the last poll in June.

It means Peters and his party have leapfrogged both the Greens and Act for the first time. The Green Party came in at 9.4%, an increase of 1.2 points, while Act was unchanged on 9.1%.

Meanwhile, National had reversed its fortunes with a 0.4-point increase to 33.9%, pulling ahead of Labour, which had dropped 3.2 points to 31.6%. The June poll found Labour had more support than National (34.8% vs 33.5%).

Te Pāti Māori had a 0.2-point increase to 3.5%.

The poll of 1000 people was conducted via landline and mobile phone and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Christopher Luxon have almost identical levels of support in a new poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The numbers mean a coalition of National (42), NZ First (12) and Act (11) could form a government with 65 seats.

A coalition of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (assuming it held an electorate seat) could muster only 57.

In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has closed the gap on Christopher Luxon to just 0.1 points, having increased 1.1 points to 19.6% while Luxon dipped 0.6 points to 19.7%.

Peters registered as the third-most-preferred at 9.3%, up 1.3 points on the last poll. Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick rose 1.4 points to 7% while Act’s David Seymour was in fifth at 5.7%, down 0.3 points.

The poll’s issues monitor found the cost of living had overtaken the economy as respondents’ top issue, rising 3.5 points to 21.6%. Health was the third most important issue.

In June, the Herald reported the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor that found more voters believed Labour was the best party to manage the cost of living.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.