Union-commissioned polling reveals more than two-thirds of New Zealanders think the quality of the public service is either no different or has worsened under the coalition, despite the Herald’s recent Poll of Polls analysis revealing this Government is most likely to win the next election.

The Talbot Mills polling, which showed a quarter of respondents took a favourable view of the public service under the coalition, was conducted before Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced her latest round of public servant cuts.

The polling of 1316 adults between April 29 and May 10 was commissioned by the Public Service Association, which has been an outspoken critic of the Government’s public service and employment law reforms. Talbot Mills also produces internal polling for the Labour Party.

Some 25% of respondents said the public service had improved under the National, NZ First and Act coalition Government, including 5% who said it was “much better”.

Meanwhile, 38% said it was worse, including 16% who believed it was much worse, and 29% said there had been no improvement under the coalition.

The results come despite analysis from the NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls showing the coalition would return to office at this year’s election. According to the model, polling around early May had the probability of the coalition winning a second term at 88.3%.

Most Opposition voters believed the public service had worsened, while only 9% of National voters felt the same way. Just over half of National voters said the sector had improved.

The difference in opinions was less stark for NZ First and Act voters. Some 37% of NZ First voters and 20% of Act voters said the public service had worsened, while 22% and 37% respectively said it had improved.

Addressing what National saw as backroom bloat in the public service was a key campaign pitch for the party in the 2023 election. Since then, the Government has made major changes to education, such as scrapping the country’s national secondary school qualification; to welfare, by tightening access to emergency housing and benefits; and in health, by cutting the Māori Health Authority.

Willis holds the public service and finance portfolios. She has called for major job cuts in public service over the past two years, saying each department needs to tighten its belt in a poor, post-Covid economy and amid growing public servant numbers.

The Talbot Mills polling was conducted before the latest round of job cuts affecting nearly 9000 workers was announced as part of a wider public sector overhaul from which the Government expects to save $2.4 billion.

Increasing artificial intelligence (AI) use would also improve productivity and deliver better value for money, Willis said.

PSA’s national secretary Fleur Fitzsimons said there was “no evidence to support the Government’s claims that AI can replace public servants”.

“Over the next three years, if these cuts are rolled out, New Zealanders will see the services they rely on eroded further, which is why we are running a strong campaign to oppose the re-election of the coalition Government.”

Employment law overhaul

The Government is making major reforms to the country’s employment law, including repealing the Holidays Act and replacing it with the new Employment Leave Act. This, the Government says, is to simplify a complex system that many employers have struggled to interpret.

Annual leave and sick leave would be based on the hours worked, rather than the current lump sum of four weeks’ annual leave and 10 days’ sick leave. Part-time workers are currently entitled to the same number of sick days as fulltime workers. Under the new approach, leave would be accrued at a rate equating to four weeks of annual leave if completing 40-hour weeks (so those who work fewer than 40 hours would receive less leave).

The Talbot Mills polling asked people: as you may be aware, the Government are making changes to holidays and leave legislation. The Government says the changes will simplify the rules, but opponents say they will result in less pay and leave for part-time workers, those on irregular hours, and others. Do you think the Government’s proposed changes to holidays and sick leave will likely benefit working people or employers more?

Some 41% of respondents said the reforms would benefit employers more and 11% said working people would benefit most.

Under the current system, several calculations and comparisons are used to reflect leave pay rates for employees who work non-standard hours. Under the new system, all leave would be paid at an hourly rate based on the worker’s lowest hourly rate payable for the day the leave is taken.

Fitzsimons said the employment reforms favoured employees over workers, and part-time workers would bear the brunt of the changes.

“We call on National and NZ First to stop the Employment Leave Bill from progressing. No political party should cut the pay of workers during a cost-of-living crisis,” she said.

Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden, who is leading the changes, has long said the Holidays Act was complex, confusing and responsible for huge remediation.

“For years, reform of the Holidays Act has been the top challenge the business community has hoped the Government would take on. This Government has listened and we are acting,” she said.

“The Employment Leave Bill’s simplicity is a huge benefit to both businesses and workers as for the first time in decades Kiwis will be easily able to calculate what they need to pay and what they are earning. The vast majority of employees will not notice any difference in their pay.”

Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says the Holidays Act is complex and confusing. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Respondents to the poll were also asked: under the changes, some workers whose pay varies from week to week would receive less when on leave than in a typical working week. This can impact part-time workers, those on ACC and those who earn commissions or bonuses. Do you think workers whose pay varies from week to week should receive the same pay when on holiday leave as they would in a typical working week, or is it acceptable for them to receive less?

Two-thirds said they should receive the same as a typical working week, 19% believed it was acceptable for them to receive less and 15% were unsure.

Across all voter bases, more people believed workers should receive the same as they would in a typical week.

The Government’s employment law changes follow the passing under urgency of the Equal Pay Amendment Bill, which weakened legislation that helped women challenge entrenched pay discrimination.

The changes came amid outcry and protest from unions, workers and New Zealanders in general who were upset by reforms they considered detrimental to women’s rights.

Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.