The National Party has dropped into the 20s in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, while New Zealand First has risen into the double digits. 

The results, which come from a poll conducted between October 1 and October 5, show Labour remains in the lead at 31.2%, though it has dropped 2.6 points since last month. 

National has fallen 3.5 points to 29.6%, mirroring its result from this same poll in January. Its coalition partner NZ First has gained 2.5 points to reach 10.6%. Act meanwhile has dropped slightly, by 0.1, to 6.6%. 

The Green Party has gained 1.3 points to reach 12%, while Te Pāti Māori has moved up by 0.1 to 4.4%. 

Translating these results into seats in the House, the centre-left bloc would have 61 seats, enough to govern, while the centre-right would have 59. 

Labour would have 40 seats, National 38, the Greens 15, NZ First 13, Act 8 and Te Pāti Māori 6. 

National has fallen, while NZ First is on the rise. Photo / Mark Mitchell 

Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader, has also overtaken National’s Christopher Luxon as the country’s preferred Prime Minister. 

Hipkins has gained 3.2 points to reach 20.9%, while Luxon has dropped 1.9 points to 19.8%. NZ First leader Winston Peters is down 1 point to 9.9%, the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.5 points to 6.3% and Act’s David Seymour is up 0.3 to 4%. 

The cost of living remains New Zealanders’ most important issue. It is the top issue for 26.4% of people, down 1.1 points since the last poll. 

The economy more generally comes in second, the most important issue for 17.4% (up 1.3 points), then health on 10.3% (down 0.8), employment on 5.1% and poverty on 4.1%. 

Back in January, when National was last in the 20s in this poll, Labour was on 30.9%. However, with the support of NZ First and Act, the centre-right could govern at the time. 

The poll was conducted in the second half of last week, which was dominated by news of the Government’s energy announcement. It received a mixed reaction, with some in the industry considering it a good step, but others wanting bolder action. 

It also followed Foreign Affairs Minister Peters announcing New Zealand would not yet recognise Palestine as a state, suggesting there were conditions yet to be fulfilled before the Government would take that step. Labour in the aftermath said it would “very quickly” recognise Palestine as a state. 

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 01 October and Sunday 05 October 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 13.9% were undecided on the party vote question.