Labour has overtaken National in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, which was conducted this month after the controversial pay equity changes and the Government delivering the Budget.

NZ First leader Winston Peters’ net favourability is also now positive, the only leader of the three Government parties to be able to claim that.

Also, for the first time since October last year, the cost of living is no longer New Zealanders’ top issue, with it being replaced by the economy more generally.

According to the results released today, Labour is on 34.8%, up 1.6 points since the last poll in May. National is down 1.1 points to 33.5%.

Among the smaller parties, Act is down 0.4 to 9.1%, the Greens have fallen 0.9 to 8.2% and New Zealand First has lost 1.3 points to 6.1%. Te Pāti Māori remains under the 5% threshold at 3.3% (down 0.6) but would enter Parliament if it secured an electorate seat.

While Labour is in front of National, the centre-right bloc would still be able to govern. National gets 42 seats, Act receives 12 and NZ First has eight, a total of 62. That’s compared with 60 for the centre-left, made up of 44 for Labour, 10 for the Greens and six for Te Pāti Māori.

Since the previous Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, Peters has made it clear he won’t work with Labour if the party is still led by Chris Hipkins.

A new poll shows it's close between Labour and National. Photo / NZME

In terms of preferred Prime Minister, National’s Christopher Luxon is at 20.3% (down 4.2 points), while Labour’s Hipkins is down 1.5 points to 18.5%.

Peters is at 8% (down 0.1), Act’s David Seymour is at 6% (down 0.7) and the Greens’ co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is at 5.6% (up 0.6).

Meanwhile, Peters has jumped into positive net favourability territory. In this poll, he is sitting at +1%, just behind Hipkins, who is on +3.2%.

Peters’ coalition partners are in the negative. Luxon is at -8.6% and Seymour is on -17.6%.

Despite Kiwis souring on the Government parties, they are slightly more positive about the country’s direction than in the last poll.

The results have 39.6% of New Zealanders thinking the country is heading in the right direction, up 6.3 points, compared with 47.6% who say it’s going in the wrong direction. That is a net -8%, compared with a net -13% last month.

The poll results show the economy is the most important issue for 20.2% of voters (up 3.7 points), followed by the cost of living at 18.1% (down 8.3 points). Health is next on 11.9% (down five points), then employment on 5.8% and the environment on 4.5%.

Unlike the previous Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released in early May, this poll captures the mood of New Zealand after the Government’s controversial changes to the pay equity regime and also Budget 2025.

The Government’s pay equity changes make it more difficult for people to make claims. While ministers argued the adjustments were necessary to keep the scheme fit for purpose, the Opposition said ministers were cutting into future potential settlements to pay for their Budget.

Budget Day revealed the Government would save nearly $13 billion through the changes.

Also among the headline announcements at the Budget was a new tax incentive for businesses in the form of Investment Boost and changes to KiwiSaver.

A Talbot Mills Research poll reported by the Herald last month showed it had tested poorly with voters.

Asked whether they thought the Budget delivered on May 22 would be good for New Zealand overall, bad, or would not make much of a difference, 33% said it would be bad and 22% thought it would be good.

“We’ve been measuring New Zealanders’ reception of government budgets for nearly 30 years. This is the worst we’ve ever recorded,” said David Talbot, director of Talbot Mills Research.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday 07 and Monday 09 June 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 6.1% were undecided on the party vote question.

Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office. In 2025, he was a finalist for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.