National wins byelection, flips seat in blow for Govt

Author: Adam Pearse,
Publish Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2022, 9:28AM

The National Party has won the Hamilton West byelection.

Tama Potaka won by a 2285 vote majority over Labour’s Georgie Dansey.

With 100 per cent of the vote counted, Potaka led the way with 6629, well ahead of Dansey’s 4344.

Act’s James McDowall came in third with 1462, while former Hamilton West MP Gaurav Sharma, whose resignation triggered the byelection, finished fourth with 1156 votes.

Potaka said: “I am pretty happy. I am pretty happy to be given the opportunity by the hardworking people of Hamilton West.

“I will be a strong voice for them in Parliament.”

National leader Christopher Luxon arrived shortly after and told reporters it was a “fantastic result”.

“I am really excited for Tama and the National Party. It’s a fantastic time.”

Added senior National MP Chris Bishop: “The people of Hamilton West have sent a message to this Government - change is coming.”

Later talking to party supporters, Luxon said to Potaka: “I know this is the beginning of a fantastic political career”.

New Hamilton West MP Tama Potaka is flanked by National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mike Scott

Potaka, speaking on stage with his family beside him, started his speech referencing his youth and how he was brought up with parents who had a great focus on education, along with the running of their family farm.”It’s through that start in life that I’ve been able to stand here today.”

One of the visitors to the National Party function was Gaurav Sharma, whose split from Labour led to the by-election.

He said he wanted to visit Potaka to personally congratulate him.

Sharma said he would now have a debrief with his team and volunteers and would then “review what the next stop is”. He believed he did have a chance to winning back the seat, but polled just 1136 votes in the by-election.

Over at Labour’s byelection night party, Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta said: “It has been a difficult time.

“I think the media narrative of calling this a bellwether seat is not the correct narrative for what we were going into. Nobody wanted to have a byelection and in many ways that created challenges in itself we all know.

“And also as we head into Christmas it’s been really hard this year. People are feeling the weight of a really difficult period of time and through all of that Georgie has presented a positive campaign, that’s why we’re so proud of her.”

By the time 57 per cent of counts were in, just before 8pm, Potaka maintained a roughly 1500-vote lead over Dansey.

That lead was extended to 1825 at 8.15pm when the count had reached 82.5 per cent.

As the voting figures were updated, Dansey said she intended to contest the seat in next year’s general election.

“We came into this under really challenging circumstances and just what we’ve been able to build I think has been great,” she said.

“Helen Clark herself said byelections are crazy beasts and so I wouldn’t say at any point that this would indicate the results of the general election next year.”

Voting concluded at 7pm.

Potaka led from the moment vote results were first released, including when 25 per cent of counts were in, with 2190 votes, compared to 1432 for Dansey; a 758-vote lead.

That lead extended to 818 when a third had been counted.

And as the vote count neared the halfway mark before 7.45pm, Potaka continued to inch ahead of Dansey in the latest update. With 40 per cent of votes counted, Potaka had gained 3909 votes to Dansey’s 2524 - a margin of 1385.

National Party candidate Tama Potaka at his byelection night party. Photo / Mike Scott

Addressing the crowd, Bishop thanked National supporters for coming along and gave them an update. He announced Potaka’s lead to the crowd to applause and cheers.

“Early days but looking pretty good”.

On Monday night, a Taxpayers’ Union/The Working Group Curia poll found 46 per cent of decided voters would choose National candidate Tama Potaka, compared to Labour candidate Georgie Dansey’s 33 per cent and Act candidate Dr James McDowall’s 12.

However, the 400-person poll found 28 per cent of voters were undecided, leaving the success of the two major parties in question.

National MP Chris Bishop talks to candidate Tama Potaka as they wait for votes to be counted. Photo / Mike Scott

Sharma, whose resignation in October triggered the byelection, was also running for re-election, now representing his new Momentum Party which he created after he was kicked out of the Labour Party.

The Curia poll found just 4 per cent of decided voters wanted Sharma to return to Parliament.

Waiting for the first results in the byelection are Aorangi Te Åionuku Potaka, 11, and Atalini Takiari-Brame. Photo / Mike Scott

Ahead of the release of the first votes tonight, Labour Party president Jill Day told the Herald that Dansey and her team had run an “excellent campaign”.

“They’ve been incredibly hardworking and they have been out in the community connecting with people,” Day said. “It’s been a really good campaign.”

There is a gathering of about 30 people at the Community Waikato centre which is the Labour HQ for Dansey’s byelection party tonight.

At the gathering is underfire Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta.

Labour Party supporters at Georgie Dansey's byelection party base. Photo / Tom Dillane

There was a cheer around the room as the first vote results were announced at 7.30pm with the announcement “Georgie is right behind”.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made a last-ditch attempt to drum up support, visiting Hamilton late on Friday to rally Labour troops for the last night of campaigning which involved ringing residents to remind them to vote for Dansey.

Among those hitting the phones were Hamilton East MP Jamie Strange and list MP Helen White.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks with Hamilton West byelection candidate Georgie Dansey (right) and Hamilton East MP Jamie Strange. Photo / Mike Scott

Speaking to media, Ardern noted voter turnout had been lower than in past byelections but she wouldn’t make predictions whether that would benefit Labour.

“We know that those who tend to vote more progressively tend not to vote as frequently, that’s why we’re doing everything we can to encourage people to get out and use [their] vote.”

Ardern wouldn’t speculate on how relevant the result would be in assessing Labour’s chances in next year’s general election, saying byelections were “always unpredictable”.

As of yesterday, 9836 people had voted in the by-election. A total of 1066 people voted yesterday, the second-highest daily number across the 12 days of advance voting.

Fewer people had come out to vote compared to the Tauranga byelection earlier this year, which also attracted a low voter turnout.

Many people who spoke to the Herald about the byelection either didn’t know it was on or did not intend to vote.

Labour's Georgie Dansey campaigning on Friday. Photo / Mike Scott

Earlier yesterday, Dansey and Potaka - alongside their campaign volunteers - braved slightly unpleasant overcast conditions at Hamilton’s busy intersections, waving promotional signs in a last-ditch attempt to motivate voters.

Dansey said she was feeling the toll of a fast-paced campaign, but remained in good spirits.

“We’ve been sign-waving every morning and afternoon this week and [it’s] just been an awesome experience, so [it’s] wonderful to get into the community and meet so many people but also an exhausting experience so [I’m] looking forward to [Saturday] night and having some results,” she said yesterday.

Potaka was found sign-waving in front of a shopping complex that included a superette, a liquor centre and a vape shop - the types of businesses he and National claimed had been improperly protected by the Government from retail crime.

Potaka said yesterday that time away from his family during the campaign had been tough, but he was still full of energy ahead of Saturday’s results.

“You get re-charged every day by the lives and energy of the people that you meet and I’ve been able to get really intimate with people which has been really motivating for me.

“Of course, being away from my whānau has been a bit of a challenge, but they’re here and they’re supportive of me.”

National's Tama Potaka campaigning on Friday. Photo / Mike Scott

Hamilton West, which has a reputation as a bellwether seat meaning it reflected general election results, has been kind to National in recent years, with National MP Tim Macindoe holding the electorate between 2008 and 2020 until Sharma’s victory amid surging Labour support during the Covid-19 pandemic.

A 1News-Kantar Public poll on Monday put National up 1 point on 38 per cent and Labour on 33 per cent, down 1 point.