Finance Minister Nicola Willis will this afternoon hold a press conference to update New Zealanders on the Government’s response to the economic turmoil spilling out of the conflict in the Middle East.

The press conference will be held at 1pm and will be livestreamed by the Herald.

A key focus will be the latest on fuel stock. The ongoing war centred around Iran has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the globe’s oil supply is carried. This has raised concern about medium and long-term supply of oil to refiners.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) website is tracking fuel stocks, but it hasn’t been updated since last week.

“The Government receives updated figures from fuel companies on Tuesdays and publishes them on Wednesdays. The next update will be on Wednesday, 18 March,” a spokesperson said on Monday morning.

As of March 8, there were roughly 52 days’ worth of stock either on shore or on ships heading to New Zealand.

This morning, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones reassured New Zealanders that there was sufficient supply. That came amid reports of high demand at some petrol stations over the weekend.

As the Herald last week reported, New Zealand has an alert level-style framework in place in case of fuel disruption or an emergency. The country is currently at Level 1 of the plan, which means there is a “minor” impact on the sector but this “may escalate”.

At this stage, a coordinating group led by MBIE is monitoring the situation, communicating with fuel importers, and planning for potential escalation. However, no mandatory demand measures are yet necessary.

“If the situation were to worsen, the Government has a range of tools it can use to manage supply pressures and keep essential services running,” MBIE told the Herald on Friday.

“These steps would only be taken if genuinely needed, and they would be scaled to match the severity and duration of the disruption.

“To be clear, we are not experiencing the types of sustained supply disruption that the National Fuel Plan enables as emergency measures.”

Finance Minister Nicola Willis will update the country on the Government’s response to the economic turmoil spilling out of the conflict in the Middle East. Photo / Michael Craig

While stock is currently adequate, the Government is considering potential issues in the medium term. For example, what if a country that provides New Zealand with fuel was to introduce export controls out of its own national interest, or a ship was diverted away?

Willis has said that if a situation like this were to occur, New Zealand would have time to react. In the first instance, the Government would expect fuel importers here to look for alternative sources.

There is the potential for economic impacts outside of just the supply and price of fuel. When fuel prices go up, this can have a flow-on effect to the price of other goods.

The Finance Minister has said there will potentially be inflationary effects, but New Zealand was starting from a stronger position than others, like Australia. Willis said the effect on inflation, depending on the length and impact of the war, could be between 0.4 and 1%.

In terms of gross domestic product (GDP) impact, Willis said New Zealand’s economy was still forecast to grow this year, but by a smaller amount than previously expected. It could be between 0.1 and 0.5 lower than previously thought.

US President Donald Trump has called on countries to send ships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. The Prime Minister on Monday morning said New Zealand hadn’t been formally asked to send a ship, but if it was, there would be a discussion first at Cabinet.

Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s chief political reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.