Expelled Te Pāti Māori MP Tākuta Ferris is urging Labour to show “strategic restraint” in the Māori electorates as he claims an electoral overhang is the “only mechanism” to unseat the coalition Government.

Ferris, now an independent after being expelled from Te Pāti Māori on November 10, is the MP for South Island Māori electorate Te Tai Tonga.

He was one of six Te Pāti Māori MPs to win a Māori electorate in the 2023 election. Only Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel bucked the trend, emerging the victor in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.

Voting in Māori electorates in 2023 reflected some strategic intent, with Labour getting a larger share of the party vote but candidate votes going to Te Pāti Māori.

Labour had long been successful in the Māori seats. In 2020, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi claimed the Waiariki seat before the party won five other electorates in 2023.

While the party won six seats, it received just 3% of the party vote. That created a two-seat overhang in Parliament, meaning a larger share of seats would be required to form a Government.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has repeatedly stated his commitment to campaign strongly in the Māori seats in next year’s election.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins says he wants to win back the Māori electorates. Photo / Mark Mitchell

In a statement today that featured Te Pāti Māori branding, Ferris maintained a similar outcome through “Te Pāti Māori or independent Māori MPs winning electorate seats” was the “only mechanism that materially changes who governs”.

“That increases the size of Parliament, lifts the threshold to form a Government, and forces a reset of the political equation.

“In short, Labour winning the Māori seats helps the Government survive. It does not unseat it,” Ferris said, adding Labour should show “strategic restraint”.

Ferris’ statement referenced his expulsion alongside Mariameno Kapa-Kingi in acknowledging how the “recent political noise has created uncertainty for many Māori voters”.

“Whilst Labour are simply being opportunistic, I acknowledge that recent noise is not helpful. My message to Māori voters is this: kia ū, kia mau. This is a moment of recalibration.”

“If the objective is a one-term Government, as echoed across Te Tai Tonga and the rest of the country, then the pathway is clear: Māori electorate victories must create an overhang, or the Government will remain untouched.”

Hipkins, speaking in Auckland, restated Labour would be “going all out” to win all Māori seats.

“The Māori Party have shown that they are in no state to contribute constructively to the leadership that New Zealand so desperately needs, so my message to all Māori voters: if you want a change of Government at the next election, the best way of securing that is to vote Labour.”

Adam Pearse is the deputy political editor and part of the NZ Herald’s press gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.