The Government’s Budget is doing little to reassure voters National can manage the cost of living with a new poll showing more people back Labour to bring down prices. 

The latest Ipsos NZ issues monitor survey, conducted immediately after this year’s Budget and obtained exclusively by the Herald, found National had lost New Zealanders’ confidence in managing inflation/the cost of living with voters instead trusting Labour more to handle what was considered the primary issue in the country. 

Overall, Labour was considered more capable in handling 11 of the top 20 issues Kiwis were grappling with, including health, housing, education, transport, immigration and unemployment. 

National trumped Labour in only three: the economy, crime and defence/foreign affairs. 

The Green Party was considered the authority on climate change and environmental pollution while Te Pāti Māori was the only other party to feature, believed to be the most capable on issues facing Māori. 

The survey was conducted after Budget 2025, between May 23 and 30, and sought the views of 1002 New Zealanders aged 18 and older. It had a 3.5% margin of error. 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon have vowed to tackle cost-of-living issues, but a new poll shows public confidence in the Government is waning. Photo / Mark Mitchell 

The results were hardly an endorsement of the coalition Government’s cost-of-living support measures in the Budget, which included increasing prescription durations to 12 months, allowing some SuperGold cardholders to get a rates rebate and Working for Families changes that resulted in $14 more per fortnight for 142,000 families. 

With 31% of people backing National on cost-of-living management, it was the survey’s lowest result for the party in two years on the issue that played a pivotal role in the 2023 election. 

The opposite was true for Labour, recording 32% support and its highest since May 2023. 

The divide on health between the two major parties had grown, Labour fielding 40% support as the most capable while 24% backed National. 

Inflation and the cost of living remained the top issue for respondents, 55% saying it was among New Zealand’s top three issues compared with 50% in the previous poll in February. 

Health maintained second spot, increasing 2% to 43%, and the economy was third with 32%. Housing and crime rounded out the top five with 25% apiece, the latter at its lowest recorded level since February 2022. 

The survey authors observed inflation/cost of living was the primary issue for more people in the 18-34 age bracket, despite the recent cut to the Official Cash Rate and reduced house prices. 

Political leaning appeared to have little impact on the top five issues of most importance. The only significant difference was how left-leaning respondents considered poverty/inequality the third most important issue and did not select crime, while right-leaning respondents ranked crime fourth and poverty/inequality didn’t make the top five. 

Issues facing Māori, listed as the 10th highest concern in February, had slipped to 17th. 

Meanwhile, issues concerning defence, foreign affairs and terrorism had fallen to 1% of people saying it was among the most important issues. The poll was conducted before the Israel-Iran conflict began. 

The survey’s rating of the Government’s performance in the past six months out of 10 had stabilised. It came in at 4.3, up 0.1 on the last survey, which was the lowest score since Ipsos’ tracking began in 2017. 

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.