Christopher Luxon’s National Party has sunk to its lowest result in the Taxpayers’-Union Curia poll since the Judith Collins era, and would lose a number of MPs should it be replicated at the November election.

As the Herald exclusively revealed this morning, National is sitting on 28.4%, down 2.9 points from February’s poll. That is the worst result for the party on this poll since November 2021, just before Luxon became leader.

Speculation has mounted that Luxon may be considering his future and about to resign. The speculation was fuelled when National staff were invited to Friday drinks in the Beehive. The Herald understands these drinks are normal, although the invite appears to have gone wider.

The worst result National has previously seen under Luxon on this particular poll was 29.6%, which it received last year.

If these results were reproduced at the election, National would receive 36 seats. That is below the 48 it received at the 2023 election, meaning several MPs will be out of a job.

National MPs and staff spoken to by the Herald on Thursday night, prior to the poll’s publication, were aware of the result for the party. While there was no desire to initiate a leadership challenge against Luxon on that number, it was acknowledged that the Prime Minister would face scrutiny.

The poll results show Labour on 34.4%, up 0.3. National is down 2.9 to 28.4%.

The Greens gain 0.2 to 10.5%, while New Zealand First drops 0.8 to 9.7%. Act gains 0.8 to 7.5%, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.3 to 3.2%.

This is the worst result on this poll for National under Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell 

The Taxpayers’ Union explanation of the results says the combined projected seats for the centre-left increases 1 to 61. The combined seats for the centre-right drops 1 to 59. 

On these numbers, the centre-left bloc could form a Government, said the Taxpayers’ Union. 

Labour would have 44 seats, up 1 from the last poll, National is down 3 to 36 seats. 

New Zealand First and the Greens both remain on 13 seats. Act gains 2 seats to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 4. 

“This calculation assumes there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori,” said the Taxpayers’ Union. 

In terms of preferred Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins of the Labour Party is up 4.7 points to 22.7%, while Luxon is down 1 to 21%. 

Winston Peters loses 2.1 points to 10.4%, Chlöe Swarbrick loses 2.1 points to 4.6%, and David Seymour is up 0.4 points to 5.2%. 

These results, which come from a poll conducted between March 1 and March 3, follow a difficult week for the Prime Minister and the National Party. 

The Herald first revealed the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor showed Labour remained ahead of National on which party Kiwis believed best capable to handle key issues like the cost-of-living. 

While that survey found National had made some ground, Labour was ahead or equal on 15 of the 20 issues, compared to just three for Luxon’s party. 

Later on Monday, Luxon faced scrutiny over New Zealand’s position on the United States and Israel’s strikes against Iran. 

The Prime Minister's ability has been put in question this week after several stumbles. Photo / Jason Dorday 

His performance in his post-Cabinet press conference was criticised, with comparisons made to Labour MP Clare Curran’s disastrous handling of parliamentary questions shortly before her resignation from the Ardern Administration. 

Luxon on Tuesday said he “misspoke” when he said “any action” to stop the Iranian regime would be “a good thing”. 

However, just later that day, Luxon was forced to return to Parliament late at night to correct an answer he gave during Question Time about visa extensions during the Middle East conflict. 

In light of those corrections, the Green Party’s co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the Prime Minister was “not across his brief” and “just doesn’t seem to know what is going on”. 

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 01 March and Tuesday 03 March 2026,has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.1% were undecided on the party vote question. 

Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, based in the Press Gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.