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Latest political poll: National, Act able to form Government

Michael Neilson,
Publish Date
Mon, 17 Jul 2023, 6:09PM
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon.

Latest political poll: National, Act able to form Government

Michael Neilson,
Publish Date
Mon, 17 Jul 2023, 6:09PM

National and Act would be able to form a government, based on a new political poll released tonight.

National is down two points to 35 per cent and Act is up one point to 12 per cent, according to a 1News Verian Poll.

That would give National 46 seats and Act 15 – together 61 and enough to form a majority of the 120 seats, just.

Labour is on 33 per cent, down two points.

The Greens have had a boost up three points to 10 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori is up one point to 3 per cent.

Those numbers would give Labour 45 seats, the Greens 12 and Te Pāti Māori four – making up 59 seats together.

National leader Christopher Luxon has seen a small two-point bump in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, rising to 20 per cent.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is still ahead but has seen a small drop of one point to 24 per cent.

Act Party leader David Seymour is steady on 7 per cent.

Among the parties outside of Parliament, New Zealand First was steady on 3 per cent, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up one to 2 per cent, Democracy NZ steady on 1 per cent, Freedoms NZ up one to 1 per cent and ONE Party up one to 1 per cent also.

There remained 12 per cent of respondents undecided.

Today’s poll comes after the last poll they ran in June had National and Act being able to govern alone.

The then-named 1News Kantar Public poll had National on 37 per cent, up three points on its previous poll two months ago. Labour was on 35 per cent, down one point. Act had remained on 11 per cent.

On that poll, National would have brought in 47 seats. Add to that the 15 seats from Act and it made 62 seats and enough to form a government. A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combination only reached 58 seats.

The Green Party had dropped significantly in that June poll, dipping by four points to just 7 per cent - this would result in just nine seats in Parliament. NZ First was steady at 3 per cent and Te Pāti Māori was down one point to 2 per cent.

Two more recent polls told a similar but also extremely tight story between the left and right blocs.

The Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll on Wednesday saw Labour drop two points to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins take a big hit as preferred Prime Minister, dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent.

National was still ahead of Labour but had dropped to 33 per cent - down three points since the last poll in June.

Te Pāti Māori was at 5 per cent (up 1.5 points) for the first time in the poll’s history.

The Act Party was holding firm at 13 per cent and the Green Party had dropped one to 9 per cent. NZ First was on 3.3 per cent - up 1.7.

If that poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament: the Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori grouping would have 60 seats, and National and Act would have 60.

Meanwhile, a Talbot Mills corporate poll last Monday saw Labour tumble five points to 31 per cent, its lowest rating in that poll since at least 2019.

National rose one point to 36 per cent, as did likely governing partner Act which was on 12 per cent.

The Greens were up one point too, on 8 per cent.

Te Pati Maori scored 4.2 per cent, NZ First was on 4 per cent, and TOP was on 2.9 per cent.

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