A new poll shows incumbent Auckland Central MP Chlöe Swarbrick is in a close fight to hold the seat with National’s candidate Mahesh Muralidhar nipping at her heels.

The candidates vying for the electorate will take the stage in the city tonight in the sixth Taxpayers’ Union election debate.

A new Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll released moments before the debate began showed the Green Party’s Swarbrick holding onto her seat by a thin margin, but a statistical tie when accounting for the margin of error.

Of the 500 Auckland Central residents questioned, 26 per cent said they supported Swarbrick, 24 per cent said they would vote for Muralidhar, while only 12 per cent said they were for Labour’s Oscar Sims.

But 29 per cent of people were still undecided.

When asked what Auckland Central voters believed the most pressing issue was, law and order was overwhelmingly the most popular response. The other issues voters were concerned about were the cost of living, housing and public transport.

Act’s Felix Poole is also participating in the debate, which is being moderated by the hosts of The Working Group podcast, Martyn Bradbury and Damien Grant.

As for the party vote, 30 per cent said they would vote National, 21 per cent Labour and 19 per cent Greens. There were 17 per cent undecided.

The results of yesterday’s fresh Newshub-Reid Research poll showed a surge of support for Christopher Luxon for preferred prime minister, but he would need to pick up the phone and call Winston Peters to form a Government.

Labour’s tumble has continued but only slightly - it’s down to 26.5 per cent, a tiny slide of 0.3 points.

National has also fallen slightly, down 1.8 points to 39.1 per cent.

The Green Party have risen 1.9 points to 14.2 per cent, one of their best poll performances.

Act has fallen 1.3 points to 8.8 per cent.

Crucially, New Zealand First is up 1.9 points to 5.2 per cent - enough to enter Parliament.

Auckland Central

Geography: Central Auckland from Herne Bay to the Domain, including Eden Terrace, plus Waiheke and Great Barrier islands.

History: Labour stronghold 1919-2008, except 1993 when Sandra Lee won for the Alliance. Nikki Kaye won for National in 2008 and held the seat for four terms. Since Lee, women have always won the seat.

Leading party candidates and their list places: Mahesh Muralidhar (National) 43, Felix Poole (Act) 25, Oscar Sims (Labour) 63, Damian Sycamore (TOP) 8, Chloe Swarbrick (Greens) 3.

2020 results

Candidate vote: Chloe Swarbrick (G) 36 per cent, Helen White (L) 33 per cent, Emma Mellow (N) 28 per cent. Winning margin: 1068.

Party vote: Labour 46 per cent, National 21 per cent, Greens 19 per cent, Act 8 per cent.

5 things to know about the electorate

1. 55 per cent born overseas (highest in NZ).
2. Highest proportion in NZ of residents aged 25-34; lowest under 15.
3. 39 per cent home ownership (NZ 65 per cent).
4. 32 per cent households have no car (NZ 7 per cent).
5. 25 per cent have no heating (NZ 4 per cent).

Data: Census, Electoral Commission and NZ Parliament.