Bay of Plenty residents, including those in Rotorua, are being urged to watch forecasts as Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu tracks south towards New Zealand.

The cyclone is moving through the tropics, bringing heavy rain to Fiji, and is forecast to head south later in the week.

MetService has issued a preliminary severe weather watch for Sunday, warning of gales, heavy rain and hazardous coastal conditions if the system moves directly across the North Island.

MetService meteorologist John Law said it was still too early to know which regions would be hardest hit, but the early watch highlights the potential seriousness of the system.

“We have several days until we see the impacts of Vaianu on New Zealand, so this is an early severe weather watch – a heads up for significant weather this weekend,” Law said.

If the cyclone tracks as indicated, parts of the North Island could face damaging, potentially life‑threatening, winds and periods of heavy rain.

The latest track of Cyclone Vaianu projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.

MetService said there’s a high chance the watch will be upgraded to orange or possibly red warnings as confidence in the track increases.

For the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua, heavy rain is a key concern.

Law said heavy rain watches or warnings were likely to be issued as early as Thursday if forecast confidence increases.

“The areas most impacted by Cyclone Vaianu will be heavily dependent on the movement of the system,” he said.

Severe weather watches are usually issued one to three days ahead of significant weather, but the longer lead time in this case reflects the potential severity of the cyclone’s impacts.

“Over the coming days, as clarity in the forecast increases, the severe weather watch will be updated and severe weather warnings will be issued highlighting the areas most at risk,” Law said.

Cyclone Vaianu is a category 3 system, located south of Viti Levu, Fiji’s main island.

MetService forecasters have been working with the Fiji Meteorological Service and will take over official forecasting once the cyclone moves south of 25 degrees latitude, expected on Thursday morning.

Storm preparations

The Western Bay of Plenty Council began emergency works along Shaw Rd at Waihī Beach yesterday ahead of forecast severe weather this weekend.

The council’s reserves and facilities manager, Peter Watson, said weather events in late 2025 and early 2026 caused significant erosion along this stretch of coastline.

“Since then, council has been closely monitoring how the beach has been recovering. With Cyclone Vaianu expected to impact the region, we’re taking a precautionary approach to help reduce further damage.“

Watson said the work involved pushing up sand to create a sacrificial foredune – a temporary buffer designed to absorb storm surges and protect the shoreline.

“Council’s existing resource consent from the Bay of Plenty Regional Council allows for this type of dune reinstatement, covering the area along Shaw Rd from beach access #15 (near 41 Shaw Rd) through to Coronation Park.

“It’s also a method widely used across the eastern Coromandel and Bay of Plenty, where it has proven effective in managing severe coastal erosion,” Watson said.

Crews started at the southern end near the rock revetment and will work north around low tide until Friday.

“Once the cyclone has passed, we’ll reassess beach and dune conditions and determine next steps.

“We are not planning similar works at other coastal areas at this stage as the area north of the rock revetment along Shaw Rd is most vulnerable to erosion.”

Wednesday rainfall

Rain fell consistently in the Bay of Plenty and Rotorua on Tuesday and Wednesday.

An orange rain warning issued on Tuesday continued through Wednesday and was expected to be lifted at 9pm.

Heavy rain on Cameron Rd, Tauranga as wet weather lashes the region. Photo / Letitia Atkinson

MetService forecast 60 to 80mm of rain from 9am to 9pm on Wednesday, on top of what had already fallen in the region.

The heaviest rain was expected inland, with localised downpours reaching 25 to 40mm an hour. Thunderstorms were also possible.

As at 2.30pm on Wednesday, 11.7mm of rain had fallen in Tauranga, with a total of 41.2mm forecast.

In Rotorua, 38.1mm of rain had been recorded in the city, with 59.8mm forecast for the day.

Officials urge vigilance

Emergency management officials are urging Bay of Plenty residents to stay alert as another bout of severe weather is forecast to hit Tauranga and the wider region over the next two days.

Bay of Plenty Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) group duty controller Nassah Rolleston-Steed told SunLive on Tuesday that duty teams were closely monitoring the situation around the clock.

“Our duty team is continuing to monitor the situation 24/7,” Rolleston-Steed said.

“We’ve shared some messaging on our Facebook page and will continue to update the public through our official channels if anything changes.”

With further rainfall expected today and Thursday, Rolleston-Steed urged the community to remain cautious, given the already saturated conditions across much of the region.

“Please continue to remain vigilant when out and about.

“There may be surface flooding, landslides and difficult driving conditions. Streams and rivers may rise rapidly, so if you see rising water, do not wait for official warnings – head for higher ground and stay away from floodwater.”

Rolleston-Steed said people should never attempt to walk, swim, drive through or play in floodwater.

Recent heavy and prolonged rainfall has heightened concerns about land instability, increasing the risk of landslides across parts of the Bay of Plenty.

“Given the recent weather events and subsequent rainfall over the last few weeks, there’s an increased landslide risk,” Rolleston-Steed said.

“This includes the possibility of new landslides, as well as further movement or damage at existing landslide sites.”

Residents who suspect a landslide may be occurring or about to occur are advised to evacuate immediately if it is safe to do so.

“Seek higher ground outside the path of the landslide. Getting out of the path of a landslide or debris flow is your best protection.”