The Middle East conflict has thrown a spanner in the works for the aviation industry, but travel commentators predict once stability returns, Kiwis can expect “very cheap travel” to, or through, the region.

Customer preference currently favoured airlines that avoided the conflict zone aviation analyst Geoffrey Thomas said on Ryan Bridge TODAY.

“Singapore Airlines or Cathay Pacific or Qantas [flights] going to Europe are absolutely full on routes that avoid the Middle East.”

However, he signalled once hostilities simmered down, Middle Eastern carriers were going to put competitive, low-cost fares into the marketplace, including routes from New Zealand to Europe.

Analysts say Middle Eastern airlines will offer very cheap fares once war ends. Photo / Getty Images

Independent aviation industry commentator Irene King said with potentially dramatic shifts in market share underway, customers might need enticing back.

“If they have been travelling on an alternative ... it’s going to take some weaning off that new alternative.

“If you want to travel on a Middle Eastern carrier, I would say you’ll get some pretty, pretty good deals.

“As soon as things settle, carriers, especially the Middle Eastern carriers, will reschedule substantially - with a ramping up period similar to what we saw post Covid.”

King predicted carriers would have “some pretty massive financial hits” to recover from, so would want cash flow.

“They’re just going to want to fill everything up to the gunnels.”

Jen Staples, air and product manager of the Flight Centre Travel Group NZ, said given hesitation from travellers booking via the Middle East, “we may see airlines use sharper pricing to stimulate demand and rebuild confidence once schedules are fully confirmed.”

She cautioned travellers to temper their expectations around the timing and availability of bargain flights.

“Long‑haul travel, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere summer, is usually booked well in advance, so we wouldn’t expect dramatically discounted pricing during the peak July travel period. Any discounted fares are more likely to appear in shoulder seasons, where airlines have greater flexibility to offer customers."

Discounted fares are more likely to be on offer for shoulder seasons. Photo / 123rf

There were multiple interconnected reasons why flight schedules wouldn’t return to normal immediately, said House of Travel chief executive David Coombes.

“Once conditions stabilise, airlines need to rebuild capacity, reposition aircraft and manage crew logistics, so recovery happens progressively over a number of weeks.”

Ultimately it was in the airlines’ interest to restore their networks as soon as possible and they often used pricing tactically to rebuild volume, he said.

“We would expect to see this happen in the mid-to-long term once geopolitical activity, fuel supply and cost allows.”

House of Travel was seeing a shift in booking behaviour, rather than a drop in demand from Kiwi travellers.

“Confirmed new in-store bookings and sales are actually up compared to the same time last year. Cancellations remain low and customers are spending more time talking through their travel options with our consultants, whether that’s reroutes, stopovers or alternative destinations they hadn’t considered before and weighing up their travel options.”

According to Thomas it was not unusual for airlines to use competitive fares to stimulate demand from customers needing encouragement to fly through a region.

“There’s a sort of ... fear price graph, and at some point or another, the fare becomes so attractive that you forget your fear.”