High temperature records could be broken as large parts of the country boil under scorching temperatures, and more than a dozen heat alerts already issued across the country and forecast highs nudged up to 38C for one city. 

“Records could roll this weekend in some places!”, MetService wrote on X just before noon, when temperatures from the forecast three-day heat-streak had already topped 30C in Christchurch and were nudging 28C in Napier and Hastings. 

The twin Hawke’s Bay cities are expected to reach 33C today, and 34C and 35C respectively tomorrow, but the furnace will be at full blast Sunday with 36C forecast for Napier and a boiling 38C for Hastings - 12.7C above the city’s January average, MetService wrote. 

Heat alerts are issued a day out from the hot weather and have already been issued for Whakatāne, Napier, Hastings, Motueka, Blenheim, and Kaikōura today, with fresh heat alerts for tomorrow’s temperatures in Paihia and Russell, Whangārei, Whitianga, Tauranga, Whakatāne, Gisborne, Napier, Hastings, Masterton, Motueka, Blenheim, Kaikōura and Christchurch. 

The alerts are individual based on different centres usual summer highs. 

“Remember that heat alerts are more than just a typical hot summer’s day”, MetService wrote. 

The alerts also follow a slew wind and rain warnings and watches issued across the lower North Island and most of the South Island. 

Those in the high country and foothills of Canterbury are being warned to expect severe gale northwesterlies gusting 130km/h in exposed places over 21 hours from 10pm tomorrow, MetService said. 

“Damage to trees, powerlines, and unsecured structures possible. Driving may be difficult, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles”, it said as it urged people to secure loose items. 

Wind watches have also been issued from the early hours of Sunday for the lower North Island from Tararua District south and the entire South Island excluding Nelson, the West Coast and Westland from the early hours of Sunday through to the afternoon and evening. 

There are also heavy rain warnings for Westland and Fiordland tomorrow and early Sunday, and the ranges of Westland between Haast and Doubtful Sound on Sunday, with heavy rain watches for Grey and Buller Districts, Nelson Lakes, and the Otago lakes and rivers’ headwaters on Sunday. 

However, it’s been now-arriving hot weather – including a forecast 37C for Hastings on Sunday – across large swathes of northern and eastern New Zealand that’s been raising vegetation fire fears and sparking heat alerts for several centres. 

By 11am, Christchurch had nudged past 30C, with 30.1C, according to the MetService website. 

A southerly change has since bought cool relief, pushing temperatures down to 23C by noon. 

Scorching temperatures reaching the high 30s are already beginning to arrive. Photo / MetService 

Earth Sciences New Zealand’s manager of climate, atmosphere and hazards, Nava Fedaeff, told the Herald warmer temperatures are set to continue. 

She warned that the likelihood of serious heatwaves in New Zealand will increase, causing a threat to health, animals and agriculture. 

“I think the longer-term projections are that the number of extreme heat days and heat waves are going to increase in New Zealand,” Fedaeff said. 

“We will see new temperature records and things like that set in the future, not necessarily with this event coming, but something of that flavour,” she said. 

Fedaeff said we may even see another heatwave-like event this summer. 

MetService said these sweaty temperatures are caused by the remnants of the Australian heatwave earlier this week. Photo / Getty Images 

What brings these temperatures to New Zealand? 

Fedaeff said that when extreme heat events impact New Zealand, it typically starts with hot weather over Australia. 

“There’s generally a high pressure over Australia ... They have got a lot of continental heat, and then it needs to come our way.” 

She said we would need to have a westerly or a northwesterly wind flow to bring the warm air over us. 

“All of those things kind of need to come together, which is more on the weather time scale. We know that these types of weather patterns do occur quite frequently in the summer,” she said. 

Fedaeff said New Zealand has reached 40C on only three days in its history, whereas such high temperatures are significantly more common across the ditch and in Europe. 

A fire at Tangoio in January 2020 during a devastating heatwave and bushfires in Australia. The hottest temperature in Hawke's Bay that month was 36.3C in Wairoa. 

Hot start for 2026 

For the first few months of this year, above-average temperatures will be experienced particularly in the north and west of the North Island. 

The Earth Sciences seasonal climate outlook for January to March also indicated above-average rainfall for the north and east of the North Island, and below-average rainfall for the west of the South Island. 

Fedaeff said that at the start of the year, a weak La Nina will be at play over the country. 

“That means we get more northerly and northeasterly winds, so more weather from the tropics, which is a warm place.” 

She said the factors that contribute or have historically contributed to NZ having a hot year include warm seas. 

“Marine heat wave conditions, which are in play now, and they don’t turn off as quickly as air temperatures do.” 

Fedaeff said NZ temperatures are also impacted by a warming climate. 

“We already have this massive boost from climate change. That means that we’re starting off on a warmer note just because we’ve loaded that dice already.” 

The hottest temperatures are expected in Hawke’s Bay on Sunday, with 37C forecast for Hastings and 35C for Napier. Photo / Michael Craig 

This comes after 2025 was named as the country’s fourth-hottest year on record, according to Earth Sciences’ annual climate report. 

The report found that most regions were hotter than average by between 0.51 and 1.2C, but parts of Northland and Bay of Plenty were significantly hotter, by more than 1.2C.