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Economist Oliver Hartwich on how much trouble New Zealand's economy is in

Publish Date
Fri, 15 Dec 2023, 8:54am

Economist Oliver Hartwich on how much trouble New Zealand's economy is in

Publish Date
Fri, 15 Dec 2023, 8:54am

New Zealand is technically in recession but the country's falling GDP figures mean its economy is even smaller than expected - something of more concern to economist and ZB Plus writer Oliver Hartwich.

GDP fell 0.3 per cent in the three months to September, this followed the June quarter's figures showing 0.5 per cent growth - which was revised from 0.9 per cent.

NZ Initiative director Hartwich told The Mike Hosking Breakfast that it means we're in a technical recession, but that the revision was more shocking.

"We are in an economy that is significantly smaller than we'd estimated and we're certainly not 'the envy of the world' as the previous Government and the previous Minister of Finance wanted us to believe," said Hartwich.

"So we are developing a lot worse than our competitors in the OECD - in Australia and Europe, and therefore we have to be extremely concerned."

Hartwich said what only increased his concern was that while GDP figures continued to drop over several quarters, the country was experiencing "near record" migration levels.

"So actually, when you look at it on a per capita basis, the picture is even more shocking. Seriously, when I looked at the figures yesterday I was gobsmacked."

Compared to Australia's GDP increase of 2.1 per cent and the United States' 3 per cent boost, New Zealand appears to be seriously trailing behind the pack. Hartwich was asked by Hosking what other countries were doing that New Zealand appeared not to be.

Hartwich immediately pointed to policy under the Labour-led Government which he believes contributed significantly to why New Zealand couldn't keep up with trends across the rest of the world.

"You just have to look at the history of the last six years," he said.

"I mean was there anything business-friendly in the Government's programme that we had for the last six years? Probably not."

The economics expert said the country was now seeing the newly elected National-Act-NZ First coalition Government taking a fresh approach to tackling the economic issues.

He believed the new Government was taking the right steps to "cleaning up some of the messes" left behind by those previously in power.

"They've started this week by giving the Reserve Bank a proper mandate for adjusted price stability, they have continued the reforms by repealing the Fair Pay Agreements - and it was about time, because again, that wouldn't have helped economic growth," he said.

"And when you now go through the 100-day programme and the coalition agreements, you can see that there are policies in there that will get the New Zealand economy back on track. And then we can hopefully grow our way out of trouble."

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