Current cyclone tracks point to Cyclone Vaianu making landfall between Auckland and Coromandel when it reaches the top of the country on Sunday.

And a top meteorologist is warning some of the worst damage could happen on Sunday afternoon when coastal regions are swamped by surges fueled by monster waves and a drop in barometric pressure.

Cyclone Vaianu has now been downgraded to a category 2 storm as it enters New Zealand waters, with warnings and watches about where it will strike hardest to be updated in coming hours.

Expected to hit New Zealand shores on Sunday, MetService has warned of an increased risk of power outages, flooding and road closures as the tropical system bears down. The entire North Island is under a severe strong wind watch for Sunday.

A MetService spokeswoman told the Herald that as of midnight last night, Vaianu is a category 2 storm after a day at the stronger category 3.

“It’s now in New Zealand waters and being classified as a category 2 ... it’s about halfway between Fiji and us as we speak.”

Earth Sciences NZ principal scientist Chris Brandolino told Ryan Bridge TODAY the cyclone is looking to track somewhere between Auckland and Coromandel.

“Most current information is for the centre of the cyclone to move somewhere between Auckland and Coromandel… that’s the indication right now.”

“One of the bigger impacts in this cyclone is wind, it sort of loses its tropical characteristics as it hits us and becomes an ‘ex tropical’ cyclone.”

Brandolino has warned people in the eastern Northland and northern part of Coromandel the areas will “cop the worst” and that Sunday afternoon is looking to cause havoc for coastal communities.

“We’ll see wind gusts in excess of 100km/h which comes over the water with hightides on Sunday early afternoon the most problematic.”

Waves up to 12m are expected to pound the east coast, with Brandolino expecting coastal erosion to be affected the most on Sunday afternoon.

He said somewhere between 100 and 200mm – a month’s worth - of rain will fall in some areas within a period of 18 to 24 hours.

A new cyclone track map and fresh batch of watches and warnings were expected to be uploaded to the MetService website in coming hours.

Some regions were likely to be upgraded to orange or even red warnings as the track of the cyclone became clearer, with heavy rain watches added closer to the time.

Civil Defence has already advised Kiwis to make plans as has Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who said yesterday that people in the North Island should “stock up, get supplies and tie things down”.

Luxon told reporters that Cyclone Vaianu is a potentially “damaging and significant event” for the country, with government agencies set to be “on full notice”.

Brandolino wouldn’t say whether he’d compare it to Cyclone Gabrielle or not, but that it’s “very concerning”.

“This is going to be a big event, there’s no doubt about it.

“We won’t see as much rain as Gabrielle which is something that might save our bacon, as it’ll hit a lot faster.”

But Kiwis will have a temporary respite from wet, wild and muggy conditions today as a front moves east off the North Island.

“We do have a bit more of a settled period, still muggy unfortunately, but a bit more of a settled period until this weekend,” Lyons said.

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for the Bay of Plenty and east of Whakatāne.

In the South Island, things are fining up, with clear weather today and tomorrow as showers ease off.

A front will then bring some showers to Fiordland and Southland on Saturday, continuing to shift across the far south and West Coast on Sunday.

While it’s still far out, Lyons said Otago and Canterbury might be a haven from the bad weather.