New Zealand in September recorded a net migration gain of 2,000 people. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Brain drain gone away? New stats show more people entering NZ than leaving

Author: John Weekes,
Publish Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2022, 1:32PM

The number of people arriving in September outstripped the number leaving.

But because so many more Kiwis left the country late last year and early this year, New Zealand still recorded a net migration loss for the year ended September 30.

New Stats NZ data released this morning showed an estimated migration gain in September of 2176 people.

The stats are closely watched because migration numbers can impact employment rates, rental prices, and other major social and economic issues.

There was a provisional net migration loss of 8400 in the September 2022 year, Stats NZ said today.

That was the lowest annual migration loss since July 2021. After July last year, lockdowns and restrictions associated with the Delta and Omicron virus strains severely curtailed opportunities for people to travel to New Zealand.

But in recent months, restrictions had lifted - and the migration tide had turned.

July had a slight net migration gain, and the numbers rose in August and again in September.

But a net migration gain of 4,200 non-New Zealand citizens was recorded in September.

NZ citizens leaving

There were 11 consecutive months of net migration losses of New Zealand citizens to September 2022, amounting to 13,500.

That followed 27 months of mainly net migration gains of New Zealand citizens, amounting to 32,000.

The net migration loss of 8400 in the September 2022 year comprised a net loss of 12,700 New Zealand citizens.

And that loss more than offset the net gain of 4200 non-citizens.

Stats NZ recorded a net migration loss of 31,400 non-New Zealand citizens in the 24 months from April 2020 to March 2022.

“This is consistent with migration patterns before the Covid-19 pandemic, where New Zealand usually had an annual net loss of New Zealand citizens, and an annual net gain of non-New Zealand citizens,” Stats NZ population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said today.

In other words, citizens of foreign countries had for a long time driven overall migration gains, even when Kiwi citizens moved abroad, but Covid until recently put a stop to that trend.

Westpac economists said the outflow that started with the pandemic’s arrival now seemed to be over.

“Since the phased reopening of the border began at the end of February, we’ve seen a gradual improvement in the balance,” Westpac said.

“The lift in migration has been due to an increase in arrivals from Asia and Europe. The inflow of returning New Zealanders has remained fairly steady,” the economists added.

The figures released today were provisional - so could be revised in future.

“Departures in May were revised up sharply in May, from 6,600 to 8,000 people. We saw the same pattern last month, with the April departures revised higher,” Westpac added.

‘Starved of people’

The Act Party said the latest numbers weren’t good enough.

“With a staggering 71.7 per cent of the working aged population in the labour force, the country is being starved of people,” Act leader David Seymour said.

“New Zealand’s net migration figures have dropped to the point where the economy simply doesn’t have enough people to function.”

He said the current Government made New Zealand an undesirable destination for aspiring migrants.

“Labour has sunk brand New Zealand because it has failed in its core role of governance,” he said.

“Our health system is in crisis, crime is out of control, literacy and numeracy rates are in freefall, and the housing crisis has not been fixed.”

But Tourism Minister Stuart Nash and Immigration Minister Michael Wood rubbished suggestions the country was not luring new arrivals.

“Overseas visitor numbers for the month of September showed a significant uptick, while a decline in the net migration loss shows more people are choosing to stay in New Zealand,” the ministers said in a joint statement.

“This is consistent with migration patterns between 2002 and the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, where New Zealand had an annual net loss of New Zealand citizens, and an annual net gain of non-New Zealand citizens,” the ministers added.

Wood said more than 17,000 working holiday visitors were now in the country, out of 36,000 approved since March.

He said these workers would offer much-needed labour during a time of global worker shortages.

And Wood added: “Since the beginning of November, we have seen weekly arrivals of over 1,200 visa holders. Monthly arrivals have built, from 1000 in July to over 4000 in October.”