I'd love not to talk about the bonkers election campaign that we're in but it's pretty hard not to.
Like it or loathe it, it is dominating the news cycle. 3 leaders abandoning ship just weeks before the election, is unprecedented. It's become a 2 horse race with 2 choices. National or Labour. Status quo or a new direction.
WATCH: Jacinda faces the PM job interview
The new direction stance is seductive because it's based on feelings. A feeling that things can be better so let's give someone different a crack.
So the question I've been asked by many people lately is, “do you think labour can win?.” The answer is that they have a better chance than they've had for near enough a decade. Labour and Jacinda Ardern might scrape into power as long as they don't speak about policy and keep the feeling of change rolling for another month.
I thought the “lipstick on a pig” controversy was manipulated magnificently by the left keeping the focus on feelings and not facts.
Gareth Morgan's message was vote on policies not personalities. Fair enough. But the debate became centred on the second part of his tweet which was a mildly offensive misplaced euphemism. Was the left really horrified by the phrase? Or were the howls of outrage just noise to cover Labour's achilles heel of policy.
So yesterday in a job application video interview on nzherald.co.nz, Ms Adern kept well away from policy.
Capital gains tax? Let's form a working group. Again.
A republic? Let's start the conversation. Again
TPP? Say whatever you want as the thing is in limbo. So let's make it about housing not trade
Immigration? She doesn't like to fixate on numbers and she assured business that they'd have the migrants their industry would need.
It was a masterclass in saying nothing at all, while seeming to be confident and ready to lead. Remember she has a degree in communications and PR. She's pretty good at it.
Jacinda Ardern realises the moment she confirms a policy the hyenas will be in to strip her bones. She knows that people are leery of her party and their fondness for tax particularly when they use it to socially engineer. So let's kick it down the road and keep the conversation on feelings not policy
But tax will be today's conversation. The pre-election economic and fiscal update will be released by the government this morning. The talk is that the books are good and there's an extra 1 to 2 billion in the coffers than expected at the budget just 3 months ago. That means 2 choices going forward. A government can either spend more or tax less.
So watch this one carefully. National could either dole out money on stuff the growing country needs like roads, rail, houses, hospitals and schools. Or it could give you a little taxcut. If they go for taxcuts my call is that they're feeling rattled by Jacinda Ardern
And watch Jacinda carefully. One day soon she'll have to stop talking about feelings and detail what Labour will actually do without conditions and then it's game on.
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