ZB ZB
Live now
Start time
Playing for
End time
Listen live
Listen to NAME OF STATION
Up next
Listen live on
ZB

Andrew Dickens: Trump trade wars moving from ripples to ructions

Author
Andrew Dickens,
Publish Date
Wed, 20 Jun 2018, 12:43PM
US President Trump's trade war with China and other countries could be dangerous for the world economy. (Photo: Getty Images)
US President Trump's trade war with China and other countries could be dangerous for the world economy. (Photo: Getty Images)

Andrew Dickens: Trump trade wars moving from ripples to ructions

Author
Andrew Dickens,
Publish Date
Wed, 20 Jun 2018, 12:43PM

So with all eyes on America’s behaviour on the Mexican border I’m intriqued that the ballooning trade war between the States and China has received such little coverage.

Throughout the year it’s slowly ranked up. All told, the White House has now threatened to hit $450 billion of China’s exports to the U.S. with punitive tariffs. That’s equivalent to 90 percent of the goods that China shipped to the United States last year.

Meanwhile of course America's trade wars with Canada, Mexico and Europe with some very aggressive language during the G7 and a little bit of misinformation. Much was made of the 270 percent duty that Canada imposes on dairy products.

But that’s historical because the regulation of milk production in Canada is so much stronger than the States. For instance they micro filter and the States do not and most Canadians don’t buy American milk because it’s simply not as good. The States is also guilty of mega tariffs,168 percent on peanuts and 350 percent on tobacco.

So why the tariff battle? Trump is upset about China’s trade surplus with his country and USA’s overall trade deficit which stands at $566 billion. Economists say that’s simply an indication that Americans spend more than they save or earn.

He believes he’s preserving American jobs from cut price import competition and his people are getting leery about globalisation and he’s angry that China demands intellectual property on anything they manufacture in China on behalf of American firms. That last aspect means that Trump has said China is stealing from America which is a very harsh claim as the American firms had the right to find somewhere else to make their phones if they really had a problem.

Of course China is retaliating and it’s not insubstantial. So this is a ding dong.

Tariff wars went out of favour because they often unwinnable with both sides hurting. It also reduces competition internally and makes manufacturers lazy so Trump is taking a risk. It raises the cost of imports and so consumers pay more. They may get paid more but those gains are erased. Only time will tell how this will pan out

So what could go wrong?

Analysts at the consultancy Oxford Economics estimate the combined $250bn of US tariffs on China with retaliatory counter measures would lower GDP growth by up to 0.3% in both countries. The World Bank has also warned a worldwide escalation of tensions would have consequences to global trade equivalent to the financial crisis of 2008.

Meanwhile, here some are saying we may win as China looks elsewhere for imports of products like beef. But the one warning I have is that when a couple of bears start fighting there’s always a couple of squirrels nearby that get crushed

Take your Radio, Podcasts and Music with you