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Reliability of polls back in the headlines after Labor defeat

Author
Newstalk ZB ,
Publish Date
Sun, 19 May 2019, 4:35PM
Bill Shorten was meant to be Australia's Prime Minister, according to the polls. (Photo / Getty)

Reliability of polls back in the headlines after Labor defeat

Author
Newstalk ZB ,
Publish Date
Sun, 19 May 2019, 4:35PM

Did Scott Morrison miraculously defy the polls, or were the polls just wrong?   

His Liberal coalition will be returned to government, a win which flies in the face of surveys giving Labor the edge heading into the election.

Sky News chief political reporter Kieran Gilbert told the Weekend Collective he agrees there needs to be a reset in the way pollsters gather data.

He says there also needs to be a reset in the credence we give them.

"I just think that this result should be a wake up call. I hope it is. I certainly will be taking that approach of giving a lot less weight to these fortnightly if not monthly surveys." 

He says that these polls should not be considered relevant outside of the election years. 

Morrison has credited the "quiet Australians" for coming out to support him, and Gilbert says that the opinion and internal polling did not pick up on this. 

However, the prediction that climate change would be a major point in the election proved correct. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat against a former Winter Olympian who ran on a purely climate change platform. 

Polls have also failed to predict the results of Brexit and the US election.

 

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