Mike's Minute: The election race isn't over yet

Author: Mike Hosking,
Publish Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020, 10:52AM

So, first rule of polls is don’t take them all that seriously. We have never lived in an age in which polls are more all over the place.

It's a snapshot in time, and little else. So, let's take last night's numbers and see what Newshub says next week, then watch the trend as we get closer to the actual polling day.

But what we can see, is pretty much what we see each election as the day draws closer, the gap between the two major parties tightens.

Labour down five percent is bad, but to be honest not unexpected. Those numbers of 50 plus in previous polls, as we have said so many times, weren't real or anywhere close to it. National need to worry, there is no real sign of growth. That's outside of ACT which in a MMP race is really all you need. If the centre right block is growing, that's momentum. And momentum is what you want in the final weeks of a race.

The key is going to be the Greens. If the Greens are back over the threshold then you'd be churlish not to suggest that Labour will be back for a second term and comfortably. If they're not, then Labour has real trouble. Labour's number is going to do nothing but shrink between now and October 17. If the Greens aren't back that's probably the end of this government.

The great consistency appears to be the really small players, including New Zealand First who must be as close to gone as you get without actually counting a vote. And none of the others will see the light of day by the end of Saturday night.

But the Greens aren't there yet, and they under-perform so six is better than five, but it's not home bast yet.

My broad premise has been, and still is, if the Greens are gone, and you're writing off 10 percent and therefore splitting the 90 percent that's left.

Does Labour have close to 45 percent? Yes. Does National and ACT have close to 45 percent? Yes.

So, with a month to go, a slow burn of a campaign where many aren't even close to engaged, there is a lot to play for, a lot to lose, and a lot of unknowns.

If you think it's over, you're wrong.