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Mike's Minute: Seymour will continue to struggle to make an impact

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 13 Aug 2018, 7:09AM

Mike's Minute: Seymour will continue to struggle to make an impact

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 13 Aug 2018, 7:09AM

David Seymour is on the comeback path.

Last time I checked, before he started dancing, he was going to have a look at a small party in Germany who had suffered similar issues to ACT and had since enhanced their outlook, expectations, and results.

His hope was he could replicate the same trick here, and his conference over the weekend produced a very ACT like idea.

Smaller parliament and abolition of the Maori seats.

Neither idea is new, both ideas are broadly popular.

But nothing has been done.

I suspect the outcome this time will be no different to every other time.

They voted on the size of Parliament once, we loved the idea of reducing its size, 80 something percent voted for it. But the trouble with reducing Parliament is you need the politicians to support it.

You need them to vote themselves out of work.

Their trouble, dramatic Germanic changes aside, with ACT is a lot of what they espouse is eminently sensible.

Smaller Parliament, fewer Ministers, less government, no race-based seats.

Those aren't ideas people vote against, they're just not ideas that swing votes towards you.

Charter Schools are a good idea, but they haven't moved the needle for ACT.

Nor has the time in government, ACT has been a sensible, professional supporter of the National government. But look where it has got them.

And that remains their issue, just what is it they need to do to get some vote, to get any vote.

Obviously, if the deal in Epsom hadn't been done ACT would have been history years ago.

The halcyon days of nine MPs are a distant memory.

And the irony of the halcyon days, is if you believed Roger Douglas in the 90s when he launched the party, they were aiming for 50 percent of the vote.

So nine MPs wasn’t all that halcyon at all, but comparatively spectacular if you fast forward and compare them to now.

ACT has the same issue all small parties have, the big parties.

Between Labour and National they’ve gone so centrist, there's hardly any room left to get attention far fewer votes.

And you'd have to believe that if Seymour ever did get some traction, he'd be taking it off National anyway.

And in an MMP environment, it’s the total package that gets you to government.

National is on 45 percent, ACT is on one.

If ACT went to three, National would go to 43 percent. So the centre-right hasn’t moved.

The only hope is for ACT to grow by grabbing the right-hand side of National's vote, while National go mining for disaffected Labour voters.

And to be honest that's where the gold is.

If the economy, the confidence and he worries we are wading through at the moment turns really sour, that's the centre rights payday. That'll be what Seymour and co have their fingers crossed for.

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