Let me pose this one for Labour party fans.

So far this week we have a poll bounce, let's assume it's real.

Let's assume it sticks, which means the race is on and it's tight.

Also this week we have the IMF who have increased the global forecast. So the end times are not coming. In fact, a recession will be avoided.

Europe won't go into recession as a bloc and Germany says they individually are not going into recession. The only country that is, is Britain and it's their link to us that makes this scenario either real or a disaster for Labour here.

Globally there is a sense the worst of the inflation is behind us. Not here yet at 7.2 percent,  it stalled at what might be a peak but it’s not dropping like it is elsewhere.

But unemployment was up a bit yesterday and spending was down in December. The message has been received, the brakes are on, the lesson is being learned and there is hope that better days might be ahead.

What if we don’t go into recession? Recessions kill governments and they especially kill them in election year.

What if Labour avoids that?

Yesterday the new Prime Minister hands out more largesse, more cheap subsidised petrol. No, it’s not sensible or fiscally prudent and, yes, it adds to inflation.

But look at the polls. Labour has support.

Why? Because increasing numbers of us are beholden to them paying us to like them.

And it works.

So that means more money, no recession and a bounce in the polls. Is this the escape route for Labour, is this the turnaround they had hoped for, the electoral miracle they had prayed for?

And if so, what do National do to counter it? Their main weapon, saying that ”things are disastrous” no longer rings as true.

But, and here is the link to Britain, countries that borrowed most during the pandemic hurt the most now.

Yes they all have their individual stories but no one borrowed more than us per head apart from America. And Britain joins us in the top three for printers, borrowers and spenders.

So - what if the world comes out the other side but we are left in recession with the likes of Britain? Just us, the mad money printers.

Well then the deal is off.

But - for now in early February, with the polls, the cheap petrol and a bit of global hope - well that’s a race that’s getting more interesting by the day, isn't it.