If a free trade agreement with the European Union is concluded by the end of this year, I will eat my hat. 

Look at what you're dealing with, firstly 27 countries, and that's assuming Britain is gone. Getting a free trade agreement past a dozen countries in the TPP, or CPTPPA, or whatever they ended up calling it, took years and saw countries, like the United States, bail. Double the number of countries, and then some, and see how quickly you can wrap this thing up. 

Then we come to the contentious issues, I noted that Jean-Claude Juncker, well-known drinker and fondler of women's' hair, if you follow the British tabloids anyway, who we have seen for what he really is in the Brexit negotiations, stood next to our Prime Minister and said with a straight face, he could think of no impediments to doing a free trade agreement with us. 

Of course, if we bend over, get spanked, and thank them for the experience, he's probably right.  

The same way he was right about Britain. If only the UK wouldn’t leave, wouldn’t ask for any concessions, and basically stay in the EU forever, all would then be well with Brexit. 

Europe is, in trade terms anyway, from another age. Look at France for the past dozen weekends and ask yourself,  if you added some high-quality New Zealand wine, lamb, and butter to their list of affordability problems, would they all go home happy? No, they would not. 

They work 35 hours a week, have subsides that support their daily existence, and we want to flood their market with our vastly superior dairy and agriculture at much lower prices. What is the chance they take that lying down? None. 

This, of course, does not mean these things aren't worth pursuing, because they are. Free trade has transformed our economy and standing in the world. 

But like Japan in the TPP, there are certain things they won't budge on. In their case fish and rice, in France's case, it's agriculture and dairy. In fact, Britain is looking to cut a deal with them will present the same troubles. 

If you follow such matters, the British farming industry has been underway with an anti-New Zealand meat campaign for years. They want supermarkets banning it. Heaven forbid they should face the real world, and compete with us on a level playing field. 

But that’s the point, the falsity and protectionism that is still very much a part of day-to-day life in places like Europe, is the very thing we are trying to dismantle in putting together a free trade agreement that’s worth its weight to us. 

So let's reconvene in November and see where we are at. If the French have anything to do with it, I can tell you it won't look a lot different to what it looks like right now.

Chances of progress are possible, but remote.