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Mike Hosking: Fiscally responsible Govt means Bridges will struggle for votes

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Thu, 2 May 2019, 12:36PM
This week we have also seen the surplus is still there. Not as much as it was or could have been, but fiscally this is a responsible government. Photo / File.
This week we have also seen the surplus is still there. Not as much as it was or could have been, but fiscally this is a responsible government. Photo / File.

Mike Hosking: Fiscally responsible Govt means Bridges will struggle for votes

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Thu, 2 May 2019, 12:36PM

Do you want to know why Simon Bridges has the troubles he has? Because the unemployment rate is 4.2 per cent.

Not specifically that, but generally that things are going just fine. And when things are going just fine, those who aren't making the things go just fine have trouble getting cut through.

Say what you want about this Government, and occasionally I do, but when it comes down to the hardcore numbers things are good. And yesterday's unemployment number at 4.2 per cent is a number, under any circumstances, that can be seen as nothing else but solid and representative of good economic news.

It was 4.3 per cent, so it's down, which is always good. It's not as good as it was, it was 3.9 per cent, which is world leading. But in the grand scheme of things, it's regarded as full employment. Underutilisation is also down, another sign that those who want work can get it.

This week we have also seen the surplus is still there. Not as much as it was or could have been, but fiscally this is a responsible government. The cold hard truth is that very few countries anywhere have rates of employment as low as ours and still run their books in the black.

Now you can argue, quite rightly as it turns out, that this lot inherited all of this. They got a golden run from the start line. They got handed a rockstar economy.

But it's also true to say that until this point they haven't cocked it up. They've certainly done some stuff that might well hurt us. Workplace reform is not good. Their desire to tax more of our earnings is not good. And ultimately that will hurt them because it will hurt the economy and if you hurt the economy, you hurt your re-election chances.

But as we sit right here right now things are solid and that's backed up this week by those surplus numbers. Add in also the fact that as a grouping, this coalition is operating very professionally. Not in policy terms, like Kiwibuild. But in terms of co-operation, cohesion, and lack of the open warfare we have seen in previous deals, involving a certain Mr Peters.

What has been disagreed upon has been kept behind the scenes. Yes, Peters put his foot down on CGT. Yes, New Zealand First had to swallow the oil exploration deal. But they kept it seemly.

Add all of that together and it's hard work for any opposition leader to get the sort of cut through that might lead to poll success.

This isn't to excuse Bridges, who you well know I have never backed as any sort of saviour, but 4.2 per cent is good news. And it's part of what broadly is ongoing and sustained good news for our economy.

As long as the back pocket is looked after, telling broadly satisfied people things are dreadful, is hard to make stick.

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