ZB ZB
Live now
Start time
Playing for
End time
Listen live
Listen to NAME OF STATION
Up next
Listen live on
ZB

Health experts urge caution over alert level move

Author
Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Mon, 24 Aug 2020, 9:07AM
(Photo / NZ Herald)
(Photo / NZ Herald)

Health experts urge caution over alert level move

Author
Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Mon, 24 Aug 2020, 9:07AM

Public health experts are urging caution about moving Auckland down to level 2 this Wednesday night.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will tell the country at 3pm today whether alert level settings will be eased or extended as the number of new cases continues to fall.

The Cabinet's decision comes as the conflict between public health and economic factors becomes even starker.

Public health experts are cautioning that it may be too soon to lift Auckland out of level 3 and the rest of the country from level 2 at 11.59pm on Wednesday.

Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker yesterday predicted a lockdown extension, to be sure that a downward trend in cases was sustained. Other experts are also urging caution.

There was only one new case in the community yesterday and two new cases in managed isolation and quarantine.

The falling number of new community cases - nine on Friday, six on Saturday and one yesterday - was "good news", according to Auckland University Professor Shaun Hendy.

But he said his team's modelling showed that level 3 should be extended in Auckland "to be really sure".

He noted that in May, when the Government last decided to move from level 3 to 2, the case numbers had been lower for longer.

"We'd had almost two weeks of these kind of numbers. So relative to where we were back then, it's quite early for a shift," Hendy said.

"This is still a really tricky disease to manage, and you can't take risks because asymptomatic spread makes it hard to control. We wouldn't want to see a bounce-back and have to go back into level 3 later."

Tools to contain an outbreak - including contact tracing and genome sequencing - had improved since May, he added. "It's a really tough call."

Otago University infectious disease expert Professor David Murdoch believed the Government would be conservative and err on the side of caution.

"This will be a decision based on the confidence that the Government has contained community transmission and that there are no loose ends," he told Mike Hosking.

"That's the big question. We need to see the data. I am sure there will be a cautious approach if there are any concerns."

"We really have got to keep this in perspective. No one in the world knew how to manage this right from the start of the year. We are all doing our best, we are learning as we go along.

"There are some areas where we have been disappointed. The systems weren't really tight enough. The important thing is that systems are tightened up and that we refine and nuance the alert levels and other systems."

Take your Radio, Podcasts and Music with you