I’m going to have to agree with Mike Hosking on the cannabis referendum. He reckons the referendum is as good as decided, and I think he’s right

The two TV networks put out polls last night and both polls showed a decent majority don’t want cannabis law reform. Newshub had 48 per cent of people opposed, 42 per cent in favour, while TVNZ 1 had 52 per cent opposed and 39 per cent in favour of reform.

Yes, these are the polls we have been criticising on this show for their inaccuracy, so there’s a good chance this is a bit off as well, but the two polls are fairly similar and this is sort of where I think the opinion in this country is lying, so I’m prepared to give it the benefit of the doubt.

But, unlike Mike, I’m not happy to see this. I support cannabis law reform, and I’m disappointed we’re probably going to miss this chance.

I support marijuana legalisation, because I don’t see the point in keeping it illegal anymore. Kids are smoking it, adults are smoking it, people are smoking it and getting behind the wheel. We now have more people driving with drugs in their systems than crashing than alcohol. Meanwhile, gangs are making all the money off this.

This is ridiculous.

I don’t think legalisation is suddenly going to fix everything. Kids will still smoke it, and instead of getting it from the gangs, they’ll just get it off other kids who’re old enough to go into the weed store. Adults will still smoke it – in fact, more might because they might have easier access buying it from a store down the road.

But a couple of things will get better. Fewer people might die in crashes because of drug driving, because we will be forced to test for it on the roadside as we should. That’ll stop people getting behind the wheel high, and gangs won’t make the money off this stuff anymore. That’s got to be a good thing.

So that’s why I support it. I think it will be better for this country.

But, the problem we’ve got is that we don’t have a champion for drug reform. The opposing side have champions – they have Mike Hosking and they have Paula Bennett, and you have to admit, those are two pretty heavy hitters selling the message strongly. That’s a formidable team backing your side.

So who’s championing drug reform? No seriously: who is? There is Chloe Swarbrick from the Greens, and as much as I rate Chloe, and I do, she is no match for Paula and Mike. Most people don’t know who she is, she’s barely out of university, and when she speaks she sounds more like an academic article than a human.

The obvious champion is the Prime Minister. I don’t think ti would take anyone by surprise if she came out in favour of cannabis reform. I mean, during the election she was quite liberal on marijuana reform. She said she didn’t think people should go to jail for using it.

So why isn’t she backing that up? Why isn’t she selling that message? She is, I think, the only person in that team who has the profile and the communication skills to go up against Paula and Mike.

But you know what? The Prime Minister doesn’t really sell anything, does she? She didn’t sell capital gains tax, and she’s not selling marijuana reform. She’s not wasting capital on anything.

Which makes a mockery of being transformational. And it makes a mockery of being progressive. And in the end, it’ll be the reason why this cannabis referendum fails before it got started.