Don’t be fooled by the argument that Boris Johnson is the wrong person to lead the UK. He is possibly exactly the right person - and, for New Zealand, the best person.

Of the two men left vying for the PM’s job in the UK, Boris Johnson is the one most likely to be elected. The numbers still favour him, but we won't know for certain until late tonight our time.

If he gets the job, at least part of it will be because of his commitment to make Brexit happen.

He has promised Brexit by October 31 deal or no deal. That’s a lot stronger than his opponent Jeremy Hunt’s commitment - he says he’s open to further delays.

That makes BoJo the right man for the job, because he is the only one prepared to give the public what they’ve voted for in the UK, and like or not, slim margin or not, they wanted Brexit and all they’ve got since then is prevarication and disappointment.

It also makes BoJo the guy New Zealand should want in the role, because Brexit could on balance end up benefiting us. If it goes through, and if the global economy handles it well enough, then we stand to win.

Because a UK pivot away from Europe will almost certainly mean a pivot towards the old commonwealth countries, meaning a free trade deal for us and potentially a much bigger market for our goods in the UK.

We have a relationship of sorts with Johnson. He’s on pretty good terms with our foreign minister Winston P, who even calls him a friend.

Johnson visited here a couple of years ago and said he’d like Kiwis to be able to visit the UK freely and easily and even suggested potentially introducing a special visa for commonwealth countries post Brexit.

Which is a turn around from the recent tightening we’ve seen on visas in the UK.

Having said all of that, the path to Brexit for Johnson is far from certain.

First he has to win tonight. Then he has to survive a no-confidence vote in Parliament, and that looks increasingly likely, because that is one of the tools the no-Brexiteers can use to stop Johnson from crashing out of the EU. They will want to trigger an election and force him from government.

If he survives that, then the final hurdle is his own courage. Will he be brave enough to go through with a no-deal Brexit on October 31?

That looks increasingly like the only option the UK has left. The EU won’t negotiate anymore, it says it’s done the best deal it will, but that deal keeps getting voted down by the UK parliament who won’t pass it.

Which leaves the no-deal option, and that’s high risk for the UK. If you listen to the doomsayers, it’ll be economic Armageddon.

So, does he have the courage? If he does, he might just be New Zealand’s best choice tonight.