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11 reasons why NZ should be favourites to beat England

Author
Daily Telegraph,
Publish Date
Thu, 22 Mar 2018, 9:44AM
The Black Caps trained under lights at Eden Park on the eve of New Zealand's first day-night Test match. (Photo \ Photosport)
The Black Caps trained under lights at Eden Park on the eve of New Zealand's first day-night Test match. (Photo \ Photosport)

11 reasons why NZ should be favourites to beat England

Author
Daily Telegraph,
Publish Date
Thu, 22 Mar 2018, 9:44AM

Ask the bookmakers and they will tell you that New Zealand are favourites for this two-Test series against England. But should they be? Or should the odds be reversed?

Here are 11 reasons why New Zealand stand a better chance of triumphing than Joe Root's tourists.

1. Home comforts

Test cricket has increasingly become a game of home advantage in recent years and New Zealand have epitomised the trend.

Despite sitting fourth in the test world rankings, the Kiwis have won just two away series (against the minnows of West Indies and Zimbabwe) since England last toured the country five years ago. Compare that with their imposing home record:

Played 20
Won 13
Drawn 4
Lost 3

Indeed, Kane Williamson's side have won seven series at home since England last visited, sinking the likes of India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan along the way. With series victories away from home becoming ever less common, the scale of the task facing Root's team is stark.

2. Wats cooking

It will have been almost a year since BJ Watling's last test outing when he reclaims the gloves in Auckland this week.

The wicketkeeper missed out on the recent series against West Indies with a hip injury, but his return with be a boost to the New Zealand lower order.

In spite of Brendon McCullum's destructive power at the crease, it is Watling who has been his country's most productive wicketkeeper with the bat - his test average of 40.52 when he has the gloves far exceeds any other Kiwi wicketkeeper (minimum of two matches played).

And yet ... should he succumb to injury again, New Zealand have a man chomping at the bit to take his place.

Tom Blundell excelled when filling in for Watling during the series win over West Indies, scoring a maiden test hundred and averaging 68 in that two-match series. He also scored an unbeaten 131 in a warm-up match against England earlier this month.

3. Is Broad the new Hoggy?

In the 2008 series, a stalwart right-arm fast-medium man with an excellent England record was ruthlessly axed because it was felt that he had "lost his nip."

Matthew Hoggard never played a test match again after Hamilton, his years of service and 248 test wickets dismissed. Could Stuart Broad suffer the same fate?

Hoggard's departure cleared the way for Broad and, while there isn't necessarily a 23 to 26-year-old seamer forcing his way into the side, Broad must know that he cannot afford many more 6/10 series.

If he and/or James Anderson does not do the business, England, as ever, look a nothing side.

4. Problems if Stokes CANNOT bowl

It is impossible to downplay the importance of Ben Stokes to any England team, such is his match-winning ability with bat, ball or in the field. Understandably, England are desperate for him to play in this first test.

The ideal scenario would see him slot into the middle-order, while serving as the fourth seamer behind James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Chris Woakes, but that may not be possible, with Stokes battling a back injury sustained while fielding during the one-day series.

That could see him play only as a batsman, which would mean replacing James Vince at No 5 and bringing Mark Wood into the team as an extra bowler.

Two concerns with such a scenario:

- Stokes has never in his test career batted as high as five in the first innings of a match (he has only done so on a few occasions when quick second-innings runs are required).
- England's tail grows longer.

5. Problems if Stokes CAN bowl

The suggestions from within the England camp are that Stokes is on track to be able to bowl in the first Test. He has been building up his bowling practice in recent days and is adamant he can play a roll with the ball.

The trouble is that he was not used for more than a five-over spell during the one-day series and has not bowled in a first-class match since the start of September. Just how much can his body cope with the demands of bowling in a test?

Perversely, the scenario of Stokes not being able to bowl may in fact strengthen the team in some respects. By playing as a fourth seamer, Stokes would knock Wood out of the side and Vince would retain his place.

Who is more likely to positively impact a test out of Vince and Wood? If you've answered the Hampshire man who has yet to score a century in 20 Test innings ... you would be wrong.

England bowler Ben Stokes in action during England nets at Eden Park. Photo / Getty Images

England bowler Ben Stokes in action during England nets at Eden Park. Photo / Getty Images

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