Fine, sunny conditions are forecast for most of New Zealand this week, coming just as people start returning to work. 

In Alexandra in central Otago and in Twizel highs of 31C are expected today. Masterton could reach 29C, Ashburton 27C and it’s expected to peak at 26C in Hamilton, Palmerston North, Queenstown, and Christchurch. 

In Auckland, MetService has forecast highs of 26C through to Friday and 18C lows. 

Then, as the weekend approaches, rain and cloudy skies will return, when the temperature was tipped to peak at 27C on Saturday. 

MetService meteorologist Phillpa Murdoch said the settled weather was caused by a ridge of high pressure sitting over the country. 

“From Wednesday, there is a front approaching from the Tasman Sea, so we’ll start to see the impact of that, especially in the south and west of the South Island,” Murdoch said. 

“[It will] move up the South Island during Thursday and then it will just touch the lower parts of the North Island on Friday. 

This front from the Tasman Sea will slam into the West Coast on the South Island and could dump a high amount of rainfall there. It could see showers fall in Dunedin on Thursday. 

“However, that [front] is starting to weaken by then as another ridge starts to build over the country,” Murdoch said. 

In Auckland, rain has been forecast for Friday morning before returning to party cloudy skies through the afternoon and on Saturday. Heavier showers could return early next week. 

Higher temps than usual forecast till March from El Nino 

The National Insitute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s (Niwa) latest weather outlook showed a high likelihood temperatures - and humidity - would stay high until March. 

The cause behind the “above-average temperatures” still to come was El Nino, which Niwa said would carry on until the end of summer. 

As of early January, localised heatwaves were already being recorded in coastal Canterbury, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Bay of Plenty, and Auckland. 

And while the ocean may be warm for those summer swims, it could also mean the heat and humidity of the air is increased, bringing about more rain. 

As January continues there’s a high chance temperatures in the North Island will be above average, with Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty forecast to see extreme humidity with the heat. 

Rainfall in these areas would likely be around average, but spells of heavy rain could sweep the regions in late January. 

Moving into February and March, Niwa predicted long periods of dry, hot weather. With that, winds were forecast to be stronger than usual throughout summer. 

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.