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Liam Dann: No new Government hangover yet

Author
Liam Dann,
Publish Date
Fri, 20 Oct 2017, 1:21PM
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acinda Ardern will be New Zealand's next Prime Minister but who really won when New Zealand First decided to back Labour. (Photo \ NZ Herald)
acinda Ardern will be New Zealand's next Prime Minister but who really won when New Zealand First decided to back Labour. (Photo \ NZ Herald)
acinda Ardern will be New Zealand's next Prime Minister but who really won when New Zealand First decided to back Labour. (Photo \ NZ Herald)

Liam Dann: No new Government hangover yet

Author
Liam Dann,
Publish Date
Fri, 20 Oct 2017, 1:21PM

There's always a morning after, when left-leaning governments take power.

The world of business and financial markets is seldom enamoured with such results.

But my hangovers usually last longer than this one.

The New Zealand dollar fell moderately last night but it is up since 9am this morning and steady above US70c.

News that Winston Peters will not have hold the purse strings as Finance Minister or hold sway over monetary policy will have reassured international markets.

Despite the gravity of Peters' speech last night the fundamentals of capitalism in New Zealand are not about to be overturned.

Our new finance minister Grant Robertson spent some time reassuring business on Labour's commitment to fiscal responsibility.

And his ideas for reform of the Reserve Bank Act are not radical by international standards.

We'll likely see the Bank move to a committee-based decision process on rate setting. The current regime was in favour of that.

They'll be less keen on suggestions that independent board members are added to the committee but that will be worked through with the appointment of a new Governor in the next few months.

Robertson has also suggested the policy targets should include a focus on unemployment as well as inflation.

Purists will be concerned that this may split the focus of the Bank and dilute effectiveness. But many central banks - like the US Federal Reserve - already include it as a measure.

And from a practical point of view it won't change much while unemployment sits below 5 per cent.

The stock market fell this morning by about 1 per cent. But it has already bounced back and is close to even with where it was before the announcement last night.

Hit hardest were the retirement village operators, whose valuations are closely tied to property prices.

That sharemarket reaction indicates an expectation that property prices will take a hit in the next few months.

The Auckland market has been slowing and had effectively stalled in the lead-up to the election as it waited for a signal.

Yesterday's result was not the signal property investors would have hoped for.

But that's democracy and many people have been hoping for a fall.

Robertson's immediate task now is to reassure business and markets.

If Labour wants a honeymoon period to push through some significant social change it will need the economy to stay strong.

In the short term that hinges on confidence.

Both business and consumer confidence fell in the lead-up to the election.

ASB economists in their report this morning predict a short sharp headwind for the economy.

The biggest risk is the property market as potential changes to immigration and foreign investment rules emerge.

But as statistics out today show, immigration has already peaked so depending on the time it takes to implement policy, it may already be largely irrelevant.

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