It was to be the yardstick of the government's ability to manage the economy, returning the books to surplus this year after six years of them being in the red.

In the lead-up to the last election, they banged on about it. It was a fervent promise.

A couple of months after the election, though, it was a sombre Bill English who had to listen to the prognosis from his Treasury advisors that the figures would come in on the wrong side of the ledger by about half a billion bucks.

Since then they've been jawboning, saying it's still possible while inwardly knowing that it's now highly unlikely.

The Dipton Drawler English conceded last week the odds of the books being in the black were about 50-50.

'Teflon' John Key's annual outing to business before the Budget, which will be delivered next month, saw him mention the word 'surplus' just once. It's become something of a swear word around the Beehive these days.

Sucking the air through his teeth, he had to use it on more than one occasion when talking to us after he'd beat his gums at the luncheon suits. He's now somewhat flippantly saying it could be a couple of hundred million bucks either way and what's a couple of hundred mill between friends?

Key's now also saying they'll be close enough to be good enough. Well, it's not good enough on the other side of the election to make a fervent promise and this side, having won it handsomely, to shrug his shoulders.

Inflation's low, the dollar's high and those, and other factors, do influence how much money flows into the Government's coffers, and that's not expected to change any time soon.

But those factors also existed before the election, so it's a bit rich to now use them as an excuse.

The Government squirming has 'The Kermits' Morris dancing, proclaiming the deficit for the seventh year in a row will equal the record set over the seven years to 1972.

The Finance Minister then was Rob Muldoon who once said the public wouldn't understand a deficit if they fell over one in the street. Muldoon was a master at manipulating the figures, always declaring before a Budget the deficit was going to be horrendous and then coming in with a figure that was more respectable, but nevertheless, still in the red.

The red in the Beehive remains the dominant colour at the moment, on the faces and soon in the figures!