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Rachel Smalley: No short term solution to defeat Isis

Author
Rachel Smalley,
Publish Date
Tue, 17 Nov 2015, 11:09AM

Rachel Smalley: No short term solution to defeat Isis

Author
Rachel Smalley,
Publish Date
Tue, 17 Nov 2015, 11:09AM

In the last couple of days I've been reading a lot of analysis on the situation in France and the wider situation in the Middle East right now.

Most of the analysis centres on how to deplete Isis and the spread of that ideology.

There is one common theme in all of the analysis - there is no short term solution here, and there is no solution which won't lead to more human casualties. That is perhaps the greatest tragedy of all of this.

It will get worse before it gets better.

Many of you have taken the time to email me with your thoughts, your perspectives, your ideas on what the world should do to combat a group that has become such a threat to us all.

In almost all of the correspondence, you suggest we should not, in fact, look to the united nations for help on this. It is toothless and ineffective, and will be as long as Russia and China sit among the five permanent members on that council.

For obvious reasons, neither Russia or China wants to support what began as a public uprising against a dictatorship. That is not in the best interests of the Russian or Chinese regimes. Both countries make an enormous amount of money out of the arms trade too. The likelihood of either backing a resolution is slim.

And so if not the un, then who?

Well, immediately, we think of the United States, don't we? The global sheriff to lead the world on this. While america needs to play a major role, I'm not sure they're best to lead a coalition.

Maybe it should be France, but whoever it is. that country needs to be a unifying force, bringing together many nations to fight Isis. This is a world war in all but name.

I can't see how there can be a solution if this conflict is fought from the air. Aerial bombings - rockets, missiles - none of it is targeted. We know from George Bush's war in Iraq and Afghanistan that aerial bombardments kill indiscriminately. Hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians died in those conflicts and that fuels decades of disenfranchised people.

And From much of the analysis I've read out of the UK, the US and mainland Europe, it seems there is a growing belief that there needs to be a major ground assault in Syria and Iraq. We need boots on the ground.

A ground force of western troops, that will be difficult for any Government to commit to. There will be little public appetite for it, but how else can you reclaim the ground? You can't reclaim the ground from the air.

Then what? Well, a reconstruction plan. Again, this will take years. Many years. But we know the last Iraq war created the power vacuum that led to Isis and that can't happen again.

Middle East countries need to better serve their people. There is much work that needs to be done on how you counter radicalism both in the Middle East and in disaffected and disconnected youth in Europe.

And there is no magic wand. There is no permanent or easy-fix solution. There is no straight-forward answer. But right now, Isis is in the driving seat, Isis is holding the world to ransom, and the world's major powers need to change that.

(In the north of Iraq, we have seen what Kurdistan's Peshmerga has been able to achieve on the ground. They've recently taken back the strategic province of Sinjar, the home of the Yazidis who Isis attempted to exterminate last year.)

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