The Prime Minister's not viewing a likely by-election defeat as a sign his government's popularity is slipping.

The Soap Box: Complacent National pay the price

Two TV polls this week have New Zealand first leader Winston Peters on track to take the Northland from National when the by-election polls close tomorrow.

John Key doesn't think that means his Government's out of favour with all the public.

"Our national polling is very high. It remains high, and that would be consistent with the polls the TV channels have done. We poll every week, our poll this week was 50-30."

Mark Osborne maintains the feeling on the ground is "great", and "absolutely" he can win.

He's also rubbishing any suggestion that he's been dealt a difficult hand, following Mike Sabin's sudden resignation.

"Oh look, those are the polls. The only poll that counts is the one on Saturday."

He believes he'll either win or lose on his own merits, and the merits the Government brings to the table.

Labour Leader Andrew Little's got no regrets and no second thoughts about the Northland by-election strategy.

Little doesn't see his party's decision to step aside from the race as having bad long term consequences.

"There's no downside for Labour, this is a by-election, so voters have only one vote. There's no party vote but we'll be in a strong position to campaign again in 2017."

Little's not making any calls on how Mr Peters might play his political cards down the track with the advantage of having an electorate seat.

He says the cast iron law of New Zealand politics is you don't underestimate Mr Peters and also, you don't try and predict what he might do in the future.

Northland Regional Councillor Craig Brown is welcoming the election pledges from all candidates.

He says it might not be fair, but many people in Northland think until now, National has put its focus on more marginal seats.

"There's a feeling that there's been an underspend in Northland for a long time because it's a safe seat. Now people are starting to wake up."