Updated 1:30pm: The BNZ is warning about a new economic risk that could blow in and hit our trade balance hard.
It's a possible El Nino weather pattern.
The odds of that happening are being put at around 70 percent at the moment.
Senior BNZ Economist Doug Steel says everyone's concentrating on the halving of dairy commodity prices at the moment ... but if El Nino hits we could be in for a drought and that will negatively affect primary production.
"We're just keeping an eye on the weather because obviously if you don't make any milk then it obviously doesn't matter what the price is."
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