By: Mike Hosking | Monday, August 27, 2012 10:09 AM

So a couple of big questions out of the Waitangi Tribunal’s report on the Maori Council’s water rights claim. Firstly, is it anything we weren’t expecting? Secondly, is it trouble for the Government?

The answer to the first question - not really. They indicated the other week this was where they were heading. You might argue their wording has hardened up a bit when they talk of Maori needing more than shares, of Maori needing an on going say in these companies. That’s pretty heavy talk. But by and large this was always going to court and the report is but one step along the pathway.

The answer to the second question is more fluid. It’s only trouble if the Government lets it. They could negotiate their way out of it, hand out shares and seats on the board and in doing so get the float underway. Or they could go through the charade of pretending to look at the report and in a week or so say “sorry, no can do, we’re selling anyway, see you in court.”

The trouble with that is firstly the float price will drop given people who invest like certainty, and angry Maori heading through the judicial process isn’t the sort of back drop you want when trying to extract the maximum price out of anything. Secondly you've got the Maori Party who will once again spit the dummy, demand meetings and possibly this time actually mean it. They could end up having been made scape goats so often actually do something like withdraw support, not that that changes a lot immediately. But come the next election, National’s biggest problem is lack of decent sized on going coalition partners and if the Maori Party are no longer an option then they’ve got big trouble.

What I think we can all agree on is that the asset sale process has been a helluva lot harder than anyone could have imagined and the Government is taking a beating over it. If we weren’t so short of money and this wasn’t their trump card, lesser operators would have shelved it by now. But what do they do? This is policy number one, this was the one the entire election campaign was fought on. This is the one that buys the stuff that they promised to deliver. This goes to the basic philosophy of a centre-right party - that government doesn’t run business as well as private enterprise. That by floating, you increase investment in NZ assets, you get NZ money out of houses and into business.

There are a dozen good reasons for doing what they want to do and if they can’t get it away because they’re being ankle tapped every step, then you’ve got to wonder what the point of being in government is.

That goes back to the point I have made since the last vote. Given the size of the debate, given the democratic process works on the premise that you argue your cause, you lay out your programme, then the people decide and having decided to go with the party that wants to float these things, then we must respect their right to do it.

So given that, I’d be tempted to go for broke. I’d tell the tribunal tough luck. I’d tell the Maori Council that the next stop is court. I’d float and in doing that, apart from anything else, you’re showing determination and leadership and a genuine belief that you truly believe in what you’re doing. History shows people like strong governments.

Photo: NZ Herald